Author's Signature: Korolev

How many aircraft carriers China needs is a matter of great concern to the Chinese people. On April 23, this year, on the 69th anniversary of the founding of the People's Navy, CCTV and Reference News reporters interviewed Zhang Zhaozhong, the "bureau seat". They asked how many aircraft carriers the Chinese Navy should have to meet such a battle demand of the Blue Water Navy. "Bureau seat" answer: To ensure that there are two aircraft carriers, fighting at sea, always maintain two, at least six aircraft carriers.

There are two extremes in the number of aircraft carriers in countries with aircraft carriers all over the world. They either have 11 aircraft carriers like the U.S. military, and are all nuclear supercarriers with 100,000 tons of drainage, or have only one or two aircraft carriers like China, Britain, France, Russia and India.

Obviously, we can't develop our carrier road in the same state as the United States. The United States is a country that requires global arrival and global hegemony. We don't need to compete with other countries for maritime hegemony, but we need to be able to maintain the lifeline of marine trade. Unlike the US military, which emphasizes winning two high-intensity regional wars at the same time around the world, the Chinese Navy needs to equip at least six aircraft carriers.

At present, the Chinese Navy has an active carrier with combat effectiveness, Liaoning Ship, and a domestic carrier 002, which is undergoing sea trials and will be serving soon. Some time ago, in official media reports, it was also pointed out for the first time that the second domestic new aircraft carrier was being built orderly on the berth. This explosion is certainly very exciting. This means that the Chinese Navy will have at least three aircraft carriers in the next few years, but it is certain that the number of Chinese naval aircraft carriers in the future will not be only three.

Generally speaking, the deployment status of aircraft carriers is different. There are maintenance in the home port, on the way of deployment, on the mission, the frequency of aircraft carriers going to sea is about once every six months. Therefore, there will always be some carriers in a resting state, so the number of carriers that can be in combat state generally does not exceed half of the total number, or even only one third. If the Chinese Navy needs to maintain a dual carrier strike formation in certain sea areas at any time during a crisis, it needs to equip at least six fully combat-capable aircraft carriers in active service.

Previously, the number of Chinese aircraft carriers in the future was analyzed from the aspects of the rotation system of aircraft carriers, the operational capability of aircraft carriers and the operational tasks of the Chinese Navy in the future. But today, we are looking at how many aircraft carriers China will have in the future from the perspective of military expenditure.

As we all know, the cost of building and using aircraft carriers is very high, which requires that the construction and use of aircraft carriers must match the level of military expenditure. Britain's second "Queen Elizabeth" class aircraft carrier is scheduled to be sealed up immediately after completion, because the British military expenditure is insufficient to support the use of both carriers at the same time.

Taking the US Navy "Nimitz" class nuclear power carrier as an example, the cost of each carrier is as high as $25 billion, taking into account all carrier-based aircraft.  What's more striking is that the Navy expects a Nimitz class nuclear carrier to spend about 12 times its life expenditure. If there is a major accident on the carrier and the carrier needs additional maintenance, the cost is even higher.

In 2017, the total military expenditure was $610 billion, when the United States had 11 aircraft carriers. China's total military expenditure is $228 billion, with only one aircraft carrier in active service. However, this does not mean that China can build large-scale aircraft carriers. At present, the Chinese army is still in the critical process of full modernization, and a large number of equipment needs to be updated.

Considering the overall development of the army, it is impossible for China to suddenly increase the number of aircraft carriers in the next few years. In the next 10 years or so, the development speed of Chinese aircraft carriers should continue to maintain the current level. Then one carrier will be tested at sea and the next carrier will be built. At this rate of construction, China will have about six aircraft carriers in service and one under construction in 2030.