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Buy a house or not?

Is the real estate tax coming? Will real estate regulation relax next year? Will house prices fall? You can find some answers to these questions from the Central Economic Work Conference which closed on the 21st.

At the end of each year, the Central Economic Work Conference is regarded as the "vane" of China's macroeconomic policy in the coming year. In the field of real estate, this year's Central Economic Work Conference made these statements:

In order to build a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market, we should adhere to the orientation that houses are used for living, not for speculation, implement policies and classified guidance according to the city, consolidate the main responsibility of the city government, and improve the housing market system and housing security system.

Comparing with the conference contents in the past few years, I asked the experts to sort out the three major signals of the real estate market next year.

Signal 1: The location of "housing is not stir-fried" remains unchanged

Following the strategic reorientation of China's real estate market by the 2016 Central Economic Work Conference, which emphasized that "housing is for living, not for speculation", this year's Central Economic Work Conference again emphasized the position of "housing is not for speculation".

Zhao Xiuchi, a professor at Capital University of Economics and Trade, pointed out in an interview with a national through train reporter that the policy orientation had not changed. The government's idea of restraining investment and speculative housing demand will continue, said Yang Hongxu, deputy dean of Yiju Real Estate Research Institute.

From 2016 to 2018, the property market in many places experienced a surge in temperature. However, since the third quarter of 2018, China's real estate market has significantly cooled down, commercial housing transaction area has declined, and housing prices in some cities have begun to adjust.

Hu Jinghui, chairman of China Real Estate Brokerage Association, said that the overheated housing prices in some cities have been effectively controlled since September, while the current escalation of Sino-US trade frictions, next year we are facing a severe external environment, increasing downward pressure on the economy, so some places may have the impulse to relax regulation and control. Reaffirming the position of "no speculation in housing" is also an emphasis on the official's consistent opposition to "speculation in housing".

Simply put, large-scale regulatory loosening or policies to stimulate the housing market will not occur.

Deng Haiqing, chief economist at Wall Street News, said that the recent changes in real estate policy have aroused widespread concern in the market. On the one hand, there are expectations of a real estate tax increase, on the other hand, there are also expectations of a relaxation of real estate regulation. The conference's regulation of "building a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market" is basically in line with the 2007 regulation, but the increase of "implementing policies according to the city" and "consolidating the main responsibility of the city government" indicates that there is a real possibility for each city to relax or tighten its real estate policy because of its different conditions.

Li Chao of Huatai Securities Macro Group believes that if the downward pressure of the economy continues to increase in 2019, it will be difficult to improve the credit environment and release credit by infrastructure alone. Tax cuts and consumption stimulus policies may also be unable to effectively hedge the downward pressure. Real estate and Post-Real estate cycle play an important supporting role in stimulating economic growth. It is expected that there will be a marginal shift in real estate policy in mid-2019, but the shift will also follow the general logic of "no speculation in housing".

Signal 2: Local regulation or greater autonomy

Signal 3: Long-term mechanism construction is still the key

In 2017, the Central Economic Working Conference proposed to maintain the continuity and stability of the real estate market regulation policy. In 2011 and 2012, it was proposed that we should continue to adhere to the real estate market regulation policy. In 2016, the central economic work conference said "curb the real estate bubble". The conference in 2011 proposed: to promote a reasonable return of housing prices.

Yan Yuejin said that compared with last year, this year's meeting did not mention the rental market, and the focus of policy shifted. He believes that this has something to do with the fact that China's housing rental market itself has started and started to enter the normal development trend. There have been many incentive policies in the rental market in the past year, and there may not be any direct incentives in the follow-up. This requires the attention of relevant leasing enterprises, that is, the leasing market in 2018 is a government-supported market, and in 2019 it needs to be more proactive to explore the market-oriented model.